http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/world/8395-us-outlines-plans-to-curb-nuke-weapons-.html
Recently North Korea launched a multistage nuclear capable missile. The missile launched failed and resulted in North Korea being in a worse situation in before because of 2 main reasons
- Sanctions against them
- Now everyone is aware that their missiles do not work, so the threat level is lowered.
They (N. Koreans) believed that the missile would be a good outcome because of the following 3 reasons
- They will be in a better position for negotiations with US and S. Korea
- global advertisement for its arms sales to developing countries.
- Generate public support
Their decision tree looked something like this -
With a successful missile launch results in 100, and a failure results in -100 and no missile launch maintains the status quo at 0. The issue was with the % of success of missile launch. I believe their % of probability should be greater than 0.5 since the first missile “Taepodong 1” was a failure.
Recently North Korea launched a multistage nuclear capable missile. The missile launched failed and resulted in North Korea being in a worse situation in before because of 2 main reasons
- Sanctions against them
- Now everyone is aware that their missiles do not work, so the threat level is lowered.
They (N. Koreans) believed that the missile would be a good outcome because of the following 3 reasons
- They will be in a better position for negotiations with US and S. Korea
- global advertisement for its arms sales to developing countries.
- Generate public support
Their decision tree looked something like this -
With a successful missile launch results in 100, and a failure results in -100 and no missile launch maintains the status quo at 0. The issue was with the % of success of missile launch. I believe their % of probability should be greater than 0.5 since the first missile “Taepodong 1” was a failure.
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